$176.3 billion of remaining performance obligations sat on GE Vernova's books as of the company's July 22, 2026 quarterly disclosure. For any developer, colocation operator, or utility procurement team pricing gas turbine generation or grid equipment, that figure is the clearest public proxy available for how long a project waits for iron. Backlog here means unfilled firm and unconditional customer orders under GAAP — not pipeline, not forecast.
The headline dollar figure understates the procurement problem. Since year-end 2024, equipment backlog has grown from $43.0 billion to $87.8 billion — up $44.8 billion, or 104% — while services backlog rose only $12.5 billion, or 16%. The queue you are standing in is the equipment queue, and it has doubled in six quarters.
That changes the negotiation. In Q2 2026 GE Vernova booked $24.2 billion of orders against $11.1 billion of revenue, a book-to-bill of roughly 2.18x, against roughly 1.26x for full-year 2024. A supplier taking in more than two dollars of orders for every dollar it ships does not need to compete on price or schedule.
Key Takeaways
- $176.3B total backlog at Q2 2026, up from $119.0B at year-end 2024 — a $57.3 billion, 48% increase in six quarters.
- Equipment backlog grew 104%; services grew 16%. Services fell from 63.8% of backlog to 50.2%. The growth is an equipment cycle rather than a services annuity.
- Gas turbine backlog and slot reservations reached 116 GW, and GE Vernova is now taking reservations for 2031 delivery, expecting to be more than half contracted for that year by the end of 2026.
- Reservations are not contracts. In Q2 alone GE Vernova signed 20 GW — 18 GW of new reservations against just 2 GW of firm orders — while converting 10 GW of prior reservations and shipping 3 GW.
- Electrification equipment backlog reached $40.6B, up from $20.0B at year-end 2024. Transformers and switchgear are tightening as fast as turbines.
How Big the Backlog Is, and How Fast It's Growing#
GE Vernova Backlog Trajectory, 2024–2026#
| Reporting period | Total backlog | Equipment | Services | Gas turbine backlog + reservations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | $119.0B | $43.0B | $76.0B | Not disclosed in the Q4 2024 materials |
| Q1 2025 | Not disclosed | — | — | 50 GW — 29 GW firm backlog, 21 GW reservations |
| Q4 2025 | $150.2B | $64.2B | $86.0B | 83 GW combined, up from 62 GW the prior quarter |
| Q1 2026 | $163.3B | $75.9B | $87.4B | ~100 GW |
| Q2 2026 | $176.3B | $87.8B | $88.5B | 116 GW |
Full-year 2025 backlog grew $31.2 billion on orders of $59.3 billion against $38.1 billion of revenue. Q1 2026 added more than $13 billion sequentially, roughly $5 billion of it from the Prolec GE consolidation. Q2 2026 added another $13 billion.
50.2% — services share of GE Vernova's backlog at Q2 2026, down from 63.8% at Q4 2024. Every point of that decline is equipment volume you are queuing behind.
Backlog coverage of roughly four years against 2025 revenue means the manufacturing base is committed well past most 2027 and 2028 commissioning dates. If your interconnection study, permit path, and EPC award all track to a 2028 energization, the turbine and the main power transformer are now the long poles — not the site. That inversion is the defining feature of the current data center power bottleneck.
Where the Growth Is Concentrated#
Segment Backlog Snapshot, Q4 2024 to Q2 2026#
| Segment | Latest | Change | Book-to-bill, 1H26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power — total RPO | $111.6B | +$38.2B (+52%) | ~2.56x |
| Power — equipment | $39.3B | +$26.8B (more than tripled) | — |
| Power — services | $72.4B | +$11.5B | — |
| Electrification — total | $44.6B | +$21.1B (+90%) | ~2.04x |
| Electrification — equipment | $40.6B | +$20.6B | — |
| Wind — total | $20.4B | −$2.3B | ~0.69x |
| Wind — equipment | $8.2B | −$2.5B | — |
Power is the mass at $111.6 billion, roughly 63% of the company total. The composition inside it is what should concern buyers: equipment RPO went from $12.5 billion to $39.3 billion while services moved only from $60.9 billion to $72.4 billion. Factory slots, not service outages, are absorbing the growth.
Wind is the one segment moving the other way, with orders down about 40% year over year. Do not read that as capacity freed up elsewhere. Nacelle and blade lines do not convert to HA-class machining or transformer core-and-coil capacity.
Gas Turbine Slots: 116 GW, and Reservations Are Not Contracts#
The single most misread number in this cycle is the gas turbine GW figure, because two different things get quoted interchangeably. GAAP backlog covers firm and unconditional orders. Slot reservation agreements are a separate, off-book commitment that holds a position in the build sequence without constituting a signed equipment contract.
Q2 2026 shows the split clearly. GE Vernova signed contracts covering 20 GW of gas equipment — 18 GW of new slot reservations against 2 GW of firm orders. It separately converted 10 GW of existing reservations into firm orders, and shipped 3 GW. Nine of every ten new gigawatts entering the book that quarter were reservations, not contracts.
CEO Scott Strazik said the company is taking reservations for 2031 delivery and expects to be more than halfway contracted for that year by the end of 2026. Discussions on 2032 are underway, but he told analysts the company needs more time before it can articulate contracting timing for that year.
One corrective to the prevailing narrative: Strazik put the customer base at roughly 100 entities across 26 countries, about 80% traditional utilities and 20% data centers. Data centers are the fastest-growing slice and the marginal driver of the story. They are a fifth of the book.
What this changes for a buyer is the shape of the commitment. A reservation is a real position with real money attached and no delivered iron. If a board approves capex against one, get three things in writing: the conversion mechanics and deadline to firm order, the price basis at conversion, and the cancellation and transfer terms if interconnection slips.
And GE Vernova is not the only door. Siemens Energy closed its fiscal third quarter with a 69 GW gas turbine backlog and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries reported 35 GW on large frames. Lead times across all three run years, but the queues are not identical. Compare current gas turbine availability across OEMs before treating one backlog as the market.
Transformers and Switchgear: The Queue Buyers Underestimate#
In Q2 2026, GE Vernova reported Electrification orders at roughly 1.7x revenue, driven specifically by substations, switchgear, and transformers. Equipment RPO in that segment moved from $20.0 billion at Q4 2024 to $40.6 billion, inclusive of Prolec GE. The company's CEO letter describes that backlog as having more than quadrupled over four years, with expansion into equipment placed directly inside data centers. (The letter and the quarterly webcast state Electrification on slightly different bases — use the webcast series when comparing quarters.)
Here is the practical failure mode. A developer wins a turbine slot, celebrates, then discovers the generator step-up unit, the collector switchgear, and the medium-voltage lineup carry lead times landing on the same congested calendar. Transformers and switchgear are ordered from the same tightening supply base booking two dollars of orders per dollar shipped.
Sequence long-lead procurement accordingly:
- Release the substation transformer specification before the turbine contract is signed, not after. The GSU is frequently the schedule driver, not the prime mover
- Lock impedance, BIL, tap range, and cooling class early — late electrical-parameter changes push a transformer to the back of the queue
- Price the medium-voltage lineup against current switchgear pricing before assuming the EPC allowance still holds
What the Backlog Does to Pricing#
GE Vernova stated that in 2025 it grew the dollar margin embedded in equipment backlog by $8 billion, with six points of accretion. That is a repricing statistic rather than a volume one — confirmation the company raised prices into a lengthening queue, and Strazik referred repeatedly to "strong" pricing on the Q2 call without disclosing per-unit figures.
BNP Paribas Equity Research benchmarks cited by Utility Dive put heavy-duty frame turbines near $790/kW, HA-class combined cycle packages near $950/kW, and aeroderivative units near $1,800/kW. Against real block sizes:
- 1 GW of HA-class combined cycle at ~$950/kW ≈ $950 million of equipment cost, before balance of plant, civils, or interconnection
- 500 MW of aeroderivative peaking at ~$1,800/kW ≈ $900 million — roughly 2.3x the per-kW cost of heavy-duty frame capacity, which is the premium paid for schedule and cycling flexibility
Check current gas turbine prices against your last approved estimate before assuming the delta is absorbable.
The $200 Billion Target Moved Forward a Year#
In its December 9, 2025 investor update, GE Vernova said it expected total backlog to grow from $135 billion to approximately $200 billion by year-end 2028, including a doubling of Electrification backlog.
Four months later, Reuters reported the company raising its 2026 revenue outlook to $44.5–45.5 billion and referencing roughly $200 billion of backlog by 2027 — a full year earlier than prior guidance.
For planning purposes, treat the pull-forward as a demand signal rather than a commitment. Management has a track record of guiding low: Strazik projected an 80 GW gas turbine backlog for year-end 2025 and delivered 83 GW. BNP Paribas expects the market to look for 130–140 GW at year-end 2026 against company guidance of at least 125 GW.
What Could Go Wrong: Tariffs, Castings, and Conversion#
Three risks sit between this backlog and delivered equipment.
Tariffs. GE Vernova expects $250–350 million in tariff costs in 2026, which affects margin on backlog conversion rather than the schedule itself — but tariff exposure is one of the levers that gets passed into repricing at reservation conversion.
Manufacturing throughput. The company targets 20 GW of annual gas turbine output in Q3 2026, 24 GW by 2028, and roughly 30 GW by 2030. BNP Paribas's Moses Sutton called the 30 GW figure one where "the jury's out". The constraint below factory investment is castings, forgings, and specialty materials from a limited supplier base, and those do not scale on a capital announcement.
Conversion. Because reservations dominate new intake, the honest measure of committed demand is how much converts. Q2 2026 converted 10 GW. GE Vernova does not disclose a conversion rate, so watch the quarterly ratio of firm backlog to reservations rather than the combined headline.
What Buyers Should Do Now#
Buyer Decision Framework: Reserve, Bridge, or Re-Phase#
| Path | Best when | Delivery reality | Primary risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reserve an OEM slot | Commissioning target is 2029 or later and capital is committed | Position in the build sequence; firm date only at conversion | A reservation is not a contract — conversion terms and price basis must be negotiated up front |
| Bridge with secondary or refurbished equipment | Load must be served in 12–36 months | Weeks to months for available units against a multi-year OEM horizon | Condition, hours, and remaining life must be verified by inspection and testing |
| Re-phase to OEM reality | Interconnection or permitting is the true binding constraint anyway | Aligns energization with actual availability | Lost offtake or tenant commitments if the counterparty cannot wait |
| Split — reserve plus bridge | Large campus with phased load ramp | Bridge serves ramp; OEM units serve steady state | Two integration scopes, two commissioning windows, two spares strategies |
Actions this quarter:
- Work backward from your commissioning date through GSU transformer, medium-voltage switchgear, and prime mover lead times separately. The longest item sets the date
- If a slot reservation is on the table, get the conversion deadline, price basis, and transfer rights in the term sheet, not the cover letter
- Model phase-one load on reciprocating or aeroderivative bridge capacity — see data center generators for what clears inside 36 months
- Verify fuel infrastructure before verifying the turbine. Firm gas transport and pressure at the fence line kill more schedules than machine availability
- Re-run interconnection assumptions against the pending large load interconnection rulemaking
The hedge most teams under-use is the installed base. Cancelled projects, repowering programs, and site consolidations release turbines, transformers, switchgear lineups, and large gensets continuously, and those assets carry no reservation premium. Model both paths in the power system configurator before committing capital to a delivery window you cannot control.
FAQ: GE Vernova Backlog, Slots, and Lead Times#
How big is GE Vernova's backlog in 2026?#
Total backlog, defined as remaining performance obligations, reached $176.3 billion as of the July 22, 2026 disclosure — $87.8 billion equipment and $88.5 billion services. That is up from $163.3 billion at Q1 2026 and $119.0 billion at year-end 2024.
What is the difference between backlog and a slot reservation?#
Backlog is GAAP remaining performance obligations — firm, unconditional orders. Slot reservations are disclosed separately and reserve future manufacturing capacity without a signed equipment contract. The distinction is not academic: in Q2 2026, GE Vernova signed 18 GW of reservations against 2 GW of firm orders, and separately converted 10 GW of earlier reservations. Treat the two as different levels of commitment in any capital plan.
How far out are GE Vernova gas turbine delivery slots?#
The company is taking reservations for 2031 delivery and expects to be more than half contracted for that year by the end of 2026. Discussions on 2032 are underway without a stated contracting timeline. Confirm the specific window for your frame size and configuration in the reservation term sheet rather than relying on aggregate commentary.
How much does a gas turbine cost per kW right now?#
BNP Paribas benchmarks cited by Utility Dive place heavy-duty frames near $790/kW, HA-class combined cycle near $950/kW, and aeroderivatives near $1,800/kW. These are equipment-only figures and exclude balance of plant, civils, interconnection, and fuel infrastructure. Current asking prices by class sit in the pricing index.
Does a growing backlog mean equipment prices keep rising?#
The disclosed evidence points that way for now. GE Vernova added $8 billion of dollar margin to equipment backlog in 2025 with six points of accretion, and management referred repeatedly to strong pricing on the Q2 call. Pricing pressure eases when segment book-to-bill falls back toward 1.0x, which has not happened in Power or Electrification through the first half of 2026.
Is this all data center demand?#
No. Strazik put the customer base at roughly 100 entities in 26 countries, about 80% traditional utilities and 20% data centers. Data centers are the marginal driver and the fastest-growing slice, but the majority of the book is conventional utility load growth and generation replacement.
What to Watch Next#
Watch book-to-bill by segment rather than the total. Power at roughly 2.56x and Electrification at roughly 2.04x for the first half of 2026 are the numbers that determine whether your quote gets better or worse. A move back toward 1.2x in either is the first credible signal that pricing power is shifting.
Watch the equipment-versus-services split. Services crossing back above 55% of total backlog would indicate equipment intake has cooled. At 50.2%, it has not.
Watch the firm-to-reservation ratio inside the gas turbine number each quarter. That is the honest measure of committed demand, and at 18 GW of reservations against 2 GW of orders in a single quarter, it is currently telling you most of the queue is optionality rather than contract.
The verdict: six consecutive quarters of equipment-led growth, repriced margin, and reservations running nine to one against firm orders describe a supplier operating from structural scarcity. If your project needs power before 2029 and you do not already hold a slot, the OEM path is not your primary path. Build the bridge, price it now, and treat any turbine reservation as phase two.